The International Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC, 2007) reports that over the course of this century, net carbon uptake by the terrestrial ecosystem made a peak mid-century and then weakened or even reversed the increase on climate change. The global average surface temperature has caused warming of 0.8 ☌ over the past century ( Hansen et al., 2006 Yumbya et al., 2014), and is accelerating, with a 0.6 ☌ increase in the last four decades ( Hansen et al., 2010 Suwannatrai et al., 2017). A robust climate model is necessary for developing primary adaptive strategies and policy to minimize the harmful impact of climate change on teff.Ĭlimate is the key controlling factor in the distribution of species, and variations in habitat distribution patterns can be attributed to climate change ( Parmesan & Yohe, 2003 Lenoir et al., 2008 Bertrand et al., 2011 Guo et al., 2016). The ability to adapt to climate change will be critical for Ethiopia’s agricultural strategy and food security. Additionally, there were geographic shifts in land suitability, which need to be accounted for when assessing overall susceptibility to climate change. As expected, bioclimatic variables related to temperature and precipitation were the best predictors for teff suitability. We found that warmer conditions are correlated with decreased land suitability. Proportions of suitable teff area, relative to the total study area were 58% in current climate condition, 58.8% in RCP2.6, 57.6% in RCP4.5, 59.2% in RCP6.0, and 57.4% in RCP8.5, respectively. Our results demonstrated that mean temperature in the coldest season, precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the cold season and slope are the dominant factors driving potential teff distribution. Simulated accuracy results validated by the area under the curve (AUC) had strong predictability with values of 0.83–0.85 for current and RCP scenarios. Eleven variables were selected out of 19, according to correlation analysis combined with their contribution rates to the distribution. Based on the four Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we predicted the potential distribution of teff under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy model (Maxent). Its growth is affected by climate change, so it is essential to understand climatic effects on its habitat suitability in order to design countermeasures to ensure food security. Teff ( Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter) is a staple, ancient food crop in Ethiopia. Spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat suitability for the Ethiopian staple crop, Eragrostis tef (teff), under changing climate. Cite this article Zewudie D, Ding W, Rong Z, Zhao C, Chang Y. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. Licence This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. 3 State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China DOI 10.7717/peerj.10965 Published Accepted Received Academic Editor Le Yu Subject Areas Agricultural Science, Ecology, Plant Science, Climate Change Biology Keywords Climate change, Ethiopia, Ma圎nt, Potential distribution, Eragrostis tef Copyright © 2021 Zewudie et al.
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